麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济政策：中立而非鹰派-20180208-7页

Pleaserefertopage5forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.INDIATrendinpolicyratesSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018TrendinInflationSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018HouseholdinflationexpectationsSource:RBI,MacquarieResearch,February2018Analyst(s)UpasanaChachra+912267204355upasana.chachra@macquarie.com7February2018MacquarieCapitalSecuritiesIndia(Pvt)LtdIndiaEconomicsRBIpolicy–Neutralnothawkish?Conclusion:TheRBIkeptpolicyratesonhold,asperexpectations.However,theRBImarginallyraisedtheinflationforecastsandlowereditsGVAforecast,reflectingtheincomingdata.Wereadthepolicystatementasneutral(nothawkish)withacautioustonehighlightingpotentialriskstoinflation–aswasexpected.WeexpecttheRBItobeonpausein2018asitbalancesbetweenanascentgrowthrecoveryandavo