汇丰银行-中国-宏观经济-中国内幕：通货膨胀的甜蜜点-2018.2.12-24页

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comMiFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustoday??????HeadlineCPIinflationislikelytorisegraduallyonhigherfoodandoilpricesaswellascontinuedservicepricederegulation?Butcoreinflationshouldstaywithinthecurrent2-3%range,givenslackcapacityinindustryandthelabourmarket?WethinkthePBoCwilllookthroughtheriseinheadlineCPIinflationandmaintainits‘neutral’policystanceOnthebackofthemostsustainedgrowthrecoverysince2011,investors’attentionisshiftingtoinflation.WhileheadlineCPIinflationwilllikelypickupmoderatelyin2018,thebiggerstoryisaboutmovingou