[营销星球]汇丰银行-原油或到100美元每桶-2018.9.11-60页

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com??????Crudemarketrisksstilllookskewedtotheupside?USD100/bBrentisnotoutofthequestiongiventheincreasinglackofglobalsparecapacity?RaisingBrentpriceassumptionsfromUSD70/btoUSD80/bin‘19e,USD85/bin‘20eandUSD75/bfor‘21eandbeyondWethinkoilmarketfundamentalsareincreasinglysupportiveofcrudepricesatleastatcurrentlevels.Therecentweaknessinpriceswascausedbytemporaryfactors–mainlyatimingmismatchashigherSaudiArabiansupplyhaspre-emptedthelikelydropinIranianexports,plusabnormallyhighrefinerydowntimeoverthesummer.Webelievepricingrisksstilllookskewedtotheupsideinanumberofareas:?Big