巴黎银行-美股-宏观经济-墨西哥：北美自由贸易区之“墙”-20180119-9页

19January2018MacroMatterswww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comMexico:TheNAFTAwall?NAFTAfaceskeydatesahead,buttalksseemlikelytodragthroughH22018,wethink.?We’vemadeaflowchartwiththepotentialscenariosfromdayoneiftheUScallsitquits.?Thedecisiontoundothedealisnotthatsimpleandstatusquowouldremainforawhile.Afterfive(andahalf)roundsoftalks,theNorth-AmericanFree-TradeAgreement(NAFTA)renegotiationsbetweentheUS,MexicoandCanadahavereachedacriticalpoint.Allthethreecountriesinvolvedagreethat,afternegotiationshitawalllastyear,thissixthroundiskeyforthefutureofthedeal,andhaveagreedtoextendtalksbythreedays–from21to29January.Thereareseveralupcomingkeydatestowatch(seeTable1).Theseventhround,yettobescheduled,isexpectedtotakeplacebyearlyMarch,goingbypatternsfrompastnegotiationsthathadanaveragebreakofone-and-a-halfmonths.Negotiat