德意志银行-中国2018-2020的机遇和风险-2018.1-41页

ResearchDeutscheBankZhiweiZhang,PhD|(+852)22038308|zhiwei.zhang@db.comJanuary2018YiXiong,PhD|(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.comChina:OpportunitiesandRisksin2018-2020January2018ZhiweiZhang,PhDChiefChinaEconomist(+852)22038308|zhiwei.zhang@db.comDeutscheBankResearchDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017ChinaEconomist(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.comYiXiong,PhDDistributedon:17/01/201813:00:00GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributedon:17/01/201812:31:18GMThttp://www.hibor.com.cn/ResearchDeutscheBankZhiweiZhang,PhD|(+852)22038308|zhiwei.zhang@db.comJanuary2018YiXiong,PhD|(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.com1.Tighteningoffiscalpolicyisthemostunderestimatedriskin2018?Fiscalspendingisakeydrivingforcebehindtheeconomiccycle.Itsgrowthissettoslowin2018.2.Unprecedentedwealtheffectfromhousingmarket?Valueofresidentialho