高盛-新兴市场-投资策略-“银行”对新兴市场国内经济增长的影响-20180129-25页

RatesreflationisdifferentinEMandDM.Thereflationthemegenerallynsupportsalongequityandshortdurationtradeinthecoremarkets,butinEM,localbondshaveperformedverystronglyduringtherecentboutofhigherUSinterestrates.Thisisdue,inpart,tofallingriskpremiainEMasfundamentalsimproveaswellasbetterstartingvaluations(or“cushion”intermsofrateslevels).Inturn,thedivergingtrendsininterestrateshavedifferentimplicationsforBankstocksbetweenEMandDM.BankequitymoveswiththecurveinDM,withratelevelsinEM.Inthendevelopedmarkets,Bankstockstradequitecloselywiththesteepnessoftheyieldcurve;inmanyEMs,however,Bankstockstradeinverselywiththelevelofinterestrates.Webelievethisisduetotwofactors:(1)highergrowthinEMcanleadtoloweryieldsthroughareductioninriskpremia;(2)thelargeswingsinEMBanksearningsaredrivenbyloangrowth(i.e.volume)moresothanmargins.Whybanks