德银-欧洲-金属与采矿业-业绩展望：现金回报、成本和资金分配-20180126-38页

26January2018Metals&MiningEuropeanMetals&MiningMetals&MiningMetals&MiningMarketUpdateEuropeNorthAmericaIndustryEuropeanMetals&MiningDate26January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchResultsseasonoutlook:cashreturns,costsandcapitalallocationinfocusEarningsseasonoutlookInthisreportwepublishourresultspreviewsforourEuropeanminingcoverage;asummaryofkeyitemsandupcomingcatalystsisprovidedinFig1.Weseefourdominantthemesintheupcomingresultsseason:1)Asignificantliftincashreturnsin2018followingtwoyearsofrapiddeleveraging;2)buildingcyclicalcostpressuresthroughrawmaterialsandFX;3)increasinginvestorfocusonuseofsurpluscashflowsandcapitalallocation;M&Aactivityislikelytopickupbuttherearestillsomematerialdivestmentspossiblein2018;4)furtherconsensusearningsupgrades(DBspot>20%aboveconsensusEBITDA).Toppicks:RIO(leadingcashreturns,ongoingdivestmento