牛津大学：AI超越人类编年史（英文版）

WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willtransformmodernlifebyreshapingtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].HerewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbeliefsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwilloutper-formhumansinmanyactivitiesinthenexttenyears,suchastranslatinglanguages(by2024),writinghigh-schoolessays(by2026),drivingatruck(by2027),workinginretail(by2031),writingabestsellingbook(by2049),andworkingasasurgeon(by2053).Researchersbelievethereisa50%chanceofAIoutperforminghumansinalltasksin4